Conformal Predictions for Probabilistically Robust Scalable Machine Learning Classification

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework for classification from the very beginning of its design, the concept of scalable classifier was introduced to generalize the concept of classical classifier by linking it to statistical order theory and probabilistic learning theory. In this paper, we analyze the similarities between scalable classifiers and conformal predictions by introducing a new definition of a score function and defining a special set of input variables, the conformal safety set, which can identify patterns in the input space that satisfy the error coverage guarantee, i.e., that the probability of observing the wrong (possibly unsafe) label for points belonging to this set is bounded by a predefined $\varepsilon$ error level. We demonstrate the practical implications of this framework through an application in cybersecurity for identifying DNS tunneling attacks. Our work contributes to the development of probabilistically robust and reliable machine learning models.

Probabilistic Safety Regions Via Finite Families of Scalable Classifiers

Supervised classification recognizes patterns in the data to separate classes of behaviours. Canonical solutions contain misclassification errors that are intrinsic to the numerical approximating nature of machine learning. The data analyst may minimize the classification error on a class at the expense of increasing the error of the other classes. The error control of such a design phase is often done in a heuristic manner. In this context, it is key to develop theoretical foundations capable of providing probabilistic certifications to the obtained classifiers. In this perspective, we introduce the concept of probabilistic safety region to describe a subset of the input space in which the number of misclassified instances is probabilistically controlled. The notion of scalable classifiers is then exploited to link the tuning of machine learning with error control. Several tests corroborate the approach. They are provided through synthetic data in order to highlight all the steps involved, as well as through a smart mobility application.

CONFIDERAI: a novel CONFormal Interpretable-by-Design score function for Explainable and Reliable Artificial Intelligence

Everyday life is increasingly influenced by artificial intelligence, and there is no question that machine learning algorithms must be designed to be reliable and trustworthy for everyone. Specifically, computer scientists consider an artificial intelligence system safe and trustworthy if it fulfills five pillars: explainability, robustness, transparency, fairness, and privacy. In addition to these five, we propose a sixth fundamental aspect: conformity, that is, the probabilistic assurance that the system will behave as the machine learner expects. In this paper, we propose a methodology to link conformal prediction with explainable machine learning by defining CONFIDERAI, a new score function for rule-based models that leverages both rules predictive ability and points geometrical position within rules boundaries. We also address the problem of defining regions in the feature space where conformal guarantees are satisfied by exploiting techniques to control the number of non-conformal samples in conformal regions based on support vector data description (SVDD). The overall methodology is tested with promising results on benchmark and real datasets, such as DNS tunneling detection or cardiovascular disease prediction.

Rule-based Out-Of-Distribution Detection

Out-of-distribution detection is one of the most critical issue in the deployment of machine learning. The data analyst must assure that data in operation should be compliant with the training phase as well as understand if the environment has changed in a way that autonomous decisions would not be safe anymore. The method of the paper is based on eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI); it takes into account different metrics to identify any resemblance between in-distribution and out of, as seen by the XAI model. The approach is non-parametric and distributional assumption free. The validation over complex scenarios (predictive maintenance, vehicle platooning, covert channels in cybersecurity) corroborates both precision in detection and evaluation of training-operation conditions proximity. Results are available via open source and open data at the following link: https://github.com/giacomo97cnr/Rule-based-ODD.

Approximating Optimal Estimation of Time Offset Synchronization with Temperature Variations

The paper addresses the problem of time offset synchronization in the presence of temperature variations, which lead to a non-Gaussian environment. In this context, regular Kalman filtering reveals to be suboptimal. A functional optimization approach is developed in order to approximate optimal estimation of the clock offset between master and slave. A numerical approximation is provided to this aim, based on regular neural network training. Other heuristics are provided as well, based on spline regression. An extensive performance evaluation highlights the benefits of the proposed techniques, which can be easily generalized to several clock synchronization protocols and operating environments.

A neural approach to synchronization in wireless networks with heterogeneous sources of noise

The paper addresses state estimation for clock synchronization in the presence of factors affecting the quality of synchronization. Examples are temperature variations and delay asymmetry. These working conditions make synchronization a challenging problem in many wireless environments, such as Wireless Sensor Networks or WiFi. Dynamic state estimation is investigated as it is essential to overcome non-stationary noises. The two-way timing message exchange synchronization protocol has been taken as a reference. No a-priori assumptions are made on the stochastic environments and no temperature measurement is executed. The algorithms are unequivocally specified offline, without the need of tuning some parameters in dependence of the working conditions. The presented approach reveals to be robust to a large set of temperature variations, different delay distributions and levels of asymmetry in the transmission path.