A model learning framework for inferring the dynamics of transmission rate depending on exogenous variables for epidemic forecasts

In this work, we aim to formalize a novel scientific machine learning framework to reconstruct the hidden dynamics of the transmission rate, whose inaccurate extrapolation can significantly impair the quality of the epidemic forecasts, by incorporating the influence of exogenous variables (such as environmental conditions and strain-specific characteristics). We propose an hybrid model that blends a data-driven layer with a physics-based one. The data-driven layer is based on a neural ordinary differential equation that learns the dynamics of the transmission rate, conditioned on the meteorological data and wave-specific latent parameters. The physics-based layer, instead, consists of a standard SEIR compartmental model, wherein the transmission rate represents an input. The learning strategy follows an end-to-end approach: the loss function quantifies the mismatch between the actual numbers of infections and its numerical prediction obtained from the SEIR model incorporating as an input the transmission rate predicted by the neural ordinary differential equation. We validate this original approach using both a synthetic test case and a realistic test case based on meteorological data (temperature and humidity) and influenza data from Italy between 2010 and 2020. In both scenarios, we achieve low generalization error on the test set and observe strong alignment between the reconstructed model and established findings on the influence of meteorological factors on epidemic spread. Finally, we implement a data assimilation strategy to adapt the neural equation to the specific characteristics of an epidemic wave under investigation, and we conduct sensitivity tests on the network hyperparameters.

Learning epidemic trajectories through Kernel Operator Learning: from modelling to optimal control

Since infectious pathogens start spreading into a susceptible population, mathematical models can provide policy makers with reliable forecasts and scenario analyses, which can be concretely implemented or solely consulted. In these complex epidemiological scenarios, machine learning architectures can play an important role, since they directly reconstruct data-driven models circumventing the specific modelling choices and the parameter calibration, typical of classical compartmental models. In this work, we discuss the efficacy of Kernel Operator Learning (KOL) to reconstruct population dynamics during epidemic outbreaks, where the transmission rate is ruled by an input strategy. In particular, we introduce two surrogate models, named KOL-m and KOL-$\partial$, which reconstruct in two different ways the evolution of the epidemics. Moreover, we evaluate the generalization performances of the two approaches with different kernels, including the Neural Tangent Kernels, and compare them with a classical neural network model learning method. Employing synthetic but semi-realistic data, we show how the two introduced approaches are suitable for realizing fast and robust forecasts and scenario analyses, and how these approaches are competitive for determining optimal intervention strategies with respect to specific performance measures.