Select or Project? Evaluating Lower-dimensional Vectors for LLM Training Data Explanations

Gradient-based methods for instance-based explanation for large language models (LLMs) are hindered by the immense dimensionality of model gradients. In practice, influence estimation is restricted to a subset of model parameters to make computation tractable, but this subset is often chosen ad hoc and rarely justified by systematic evaluation. This paper investigates if it is better to create low-dimensional representations by selecting a small, architecturally informed subset of model components or by projecting the full gradients into a lower-dimensional space. Using a novel benchmark, we show that a greedily selected subset of components captures the information about training data influence needed for a retrieval task more effectively than either the full gradient or random projection. We further find that this approach is more computationally efficient than random projection, demonstrating that targeted component selection is a practical strategy for making instance-based explanations of large models more computationally feasible.

Influential Training Data Retrieval for Explaining Verbalized Confidence of LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) can increase users' perceived trust by verbalizing confidence in their outputs. However, prior work has shown that LLMs are often overconfident, making their stated confidence unreliable since it does not consistently align with factual accuracy. To better understand the sources of this verbalized confidence, we introduce TracVC (\textbf{Trac}ing \textbf{V}erbalized \textbf{C}onfidence), a method that builds on information retrieval and influence estimation to trace generated confidence expressions back to the training data. We evaluate TracVC on OLMo and Llama models in a question answering setting, proposing a new metric, content groundness, which measures the extent to which an LLM grounds its confidence in content-related training examples (relevant to the question and answer) versus in generic examples of confidence verbalization. Our analysis reveals that OLMo2-13B is frequently influenced by confidence-related data that is lexically unrelated to the query, suggesting that it may mimic superficial linguistic expressions of certainty rather than rely on genuine content grounding. These findings point to a fundamental limitation in current training regimes: LLMs may learn how to sound confident without learning when confidence is justified. Our analysis provides a foundation for improving LLMs' trustworthiness in expressing more reliable confidence.

Compact Example-Based Explanations for Language Models

Training data influence estimation methods quantify the contribution of training documents to a model's output, making them a promising source of information for example-based explanations. As humans cannot interpret thousands of documents, only a small subset of the training data can be presented as an explanation. Although the choice of which documents to include directly affects explanation quality, previous evaluations of such systems have largely ignored any selection strategies. To address this, we propose a novel selection relevance score, a retraining-free metric that quantifies how useful a set of examples is for explaining a model's output. We validate this score through fine-tuning experiments, confirming that it can predict whether a set of examples supports or undermines the model's predictions. Using this metric, we further show that common selection strategies often underperform random selection. Motivated by this finding, we propose a strategy that balances influence and representativeness, enabling better use of selection budgets than naively selecting the highest-ranking examples.

An Evaluation of Explanation Methods for Black-Box Detectors of Machine-Generated Text

The increasing difficulty to distinguish language-model-generated from human-written text has led to the development of detectors of machine-generated text (MGT). However, in many contexts, a black-box prediction is not sufficient, it is equally important to know on what grounds a detector made that prediction. Explanation methods that estimate feature importance promise to provide indications of which parts of an input are used by classifiers for prediction. However, the quality of different explanation methods has not previously been assessed for detectors of MGT. This study conducts the first systematic evaluation of explanation quality for this task. The dimensions of faithfulness and stability are assessed with five automated experiments, and usefulness is evaluated in a user study. We use a dataset of ChatGPT-generated and human-written documents, and pair predictions of three existing language-model-based detectors with the corresponding SHAP, LIME, and Anchor explanations. We find that SHAP performs best in terms of faithfulness, stability, and in helping users to predict the detector's behavior. In contrast, LIME, perceived as most useful by users, scores the worst in terms of user performance at predicting the detectors' behavior.