Automatic Model Building in GEFCom 2017 Qualifying Match

The Tangent Works team participated in GEFCom 2017 to test its automatic model building strategy for time series known as Tangent Information Modeller (TIM). Model building using TIM combined with historical temperature shuffling resulted in winning the competition. This strategy involved one remaining degree of freedom, a decision on using a trend variable. This paper describes our modelling efforts in the competition, and furthermore outlines a fully automated scenario where the decision on using the trend variable is handled by TIM. The results show that such a setup would also win the competition.

Readouts for Echo-state Networks Built using Locally Regularized Orthogonal Forward Regression

Echo state network (ESN) is viewed as a temporal non-orthogonal expansion with pseudo-random parameters. Such expansions naturally give rise to regressors of various relevance to a teacher output. We illustrate that often only a certain amount of the generated echo-regressors effectively explain the variance of the teacher output and also that sole local regularization is not able to provide in-depth information concerning the importance of the generated regressors. The importance is therefore determined by a joint calculation of the individual variance contributions and Bayesian relevance using locally regularized orthogonal forward regression (LROFR) algorithm. This information can be advantageously used in a variety of ways for an in-depth analysis of an ESN structure and its state-space parameters in relation to the unknown dynamics of the underlying problem. We present locally regularized linear readout built using LROFR. The readout may have a different dimensionality than an ESN model itself, and besides improving robustness and accuracy of an ESN it relates the echo-regressors to different features of the training data and may determine what type of an additional readout is suitable for a task at hand. Moreover, as flexibility of the linear readout has limitations and might sometimes be insufficient for certain tasks, we also present a radial basis function (RBF) readout built using LROFR. It is a flexible and parsimonious readout with excellent generalization abilities and is a viable alternative to readouts based on a feed-forward neural network (FFNN) or an RBF net built using relevance vector machine (RVM).