Learning minimal volume uncertainty ellipsoids

We consider the problem of learning uncertainty regions for parameter estimation problems. The regions are ellipsoids that minimize the average volumes subject to a prescribed coverage probability. As expected, under the assumption of jointly Gaussian data, we prove that the optimal ellipsoid is centered around the conditional mean and shaped as the conditional covariance matrix. In more practical cases, we propose a differentiable optimization approach for approximately computing the optimal ellipsoids using a neural network with proper calibration. Compared to existing methods, our network requires less storage and less computations in inference time, leading to accurate yet smaller ellipsoids. We demonstrate these advantages on four real-world localization datasets.

On the Optimization Landscape of Maximum Mean Discrepancy

Generative models have been successfully used for generating realistic signals. Because the likelihood function is typically intractable in most of these models, the common practice is to use "implicit" models that avoid likelihood calculation. However, it is hard to obtain theoretical guarantees for such models. In particular, it is not understood when they can globally optimize their non-convex objectives. Here we provide such an analysis for the case of Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) learning of generative models. We prove several optimality results, including for a Gaussian distribution with low rank covariance (where likelihood is inapplicable) and a mixture of Gaussians. Our analysis shows that that the MMD optimization landscape is benign in these cases, and therefore gradient based methods will globally minimize the MMD objective.