Abstract:Recommender systems are one of the most successful applications of machine learning and data science. They are successful in a wide variety of application domains, including e-commerce, media streaming content, email marketing, and virtually every industry where personalisation facilitates better user experience or boosts sales and customer engagement. The main goal of these systems is to analyse past user behaviour to predict which items are of most interest to users. They are typically built with the use of matrix-completion techniques such as collaborative filtering or matrix factorisation. However, although these approaches have achieved tremendous success in numerous real-world applications, their effectiveness is still limited when users might interact multiple times with the same items, or when user preferences change over time. We were inspired by the approach that Natural Language Processing techniques take to compress, process, and analyse sequences of text. We designed a recommender system that induces the temporal dimension in the task of item recommendation and considers sequences of item interactions for each user in order to make recommendations. This method is empirically shown to give highly accurate predictions of user-items interactions for all users in a retail environment, without explicit feedback, besides increasing total sales by 5% and individual customer expenditure by over 50% in an A/B live test.
Abstract:As retailers around the world increase efforts in developing targeted marketing campaigns for different audiences, predicting accurately which customers are most likely to churn ahead of time is crucial for marketing teams in order to increase business profits. This work presents a deep survival framework to predict which customers are at risk of stopping to purchase with retail companies in non-contractual settings. By leveraging the survival model parameters to be learnt by recurrent neural networks, we are able to obtain individual level survival models for purchasing behaviour based only on individual customer behaviour and avoid time-consuming feature engineering processes usually done when training machine learning models.