STRisk: A Socio-Technical Approach to Assess Hacking Breaches Risk

Data breaches have begun to take on new dimensions and their prediction is becoming of great importance to organizations. Prior work has addressed this issue mainly from a technical perspective and neglected other interfering aspects such as the social media dimension. To fill this gap, we propose STRisk which is a predictive system where we expand the scope of the prediction task by bringing into play the social media dimension. We study over 3800 US organizations including both victim and non-victim organizations. For each organization, we design a profile composed of a variety of externally measured technical indicators and social factors. In addition, to account for unreported incidents, we consider the non-victim sample to be noisy and propose a noise correction approach to correct mislabeled organizations. We then build several machine learning models to predict whether an organization is exposed to experience a hacking breach. By exploiting both technical and social features, we achieve a Area Under Curve (AUC) score exceeding 98%, which is 12% higher than the AUC achieved using only technical features. Furthermore, our feature importance analysis reveals that open ports and expired certificates are the best technical predictors, while spreadability and agreeability are the best social predictors.

Exploratory Data Analysis of a Network Telescope Traffic and Prediction of Port Probing Rates

Understanding the properties exhibited by large scale network probing traffic would improve cyber threat intelligence. In addition, the prediction of probing rates is a key feature for security practitioners in their endeavors for making better operational decisions and for enhancing their defense strategy skills. In this work, we study different aspects of the traffic captured by a /20 network telescope. First, we perform an exploratory data analysis of the collected probing activities. The investigation includes probing rates at the port level, services interesting top network probers and the distribution of probing rates by geolocation. Second, we extract the network probers exploration patterns. We model these behaviors using transition graphs decorated with probabilities of switching from a port to another. Finally, we assess the capacity of Non-stationary Autoregressive and Vector Autoregressive models in predicting port probing rates as a first step towards using more robust models for better forecasting performance.