Ethereum Price Prediction Employing Large Language Models for Short-term and Few-shot Forecasting

Cryptocurrencies have transformed financial markets with their innovative blockchain technology and volatile price movements, presenting both challenges and opportunities for predictive analytics. Ethereum, being one of the leading cryptocurrencies, has experienced significant market fluctuations, making its price prediction an attractive yet complex problem. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the effectiveness of Large Language Models (LLMs) in predicting Ethereum prices for short-term and few-shot forecasting scenarios. The main challenge in training models for time series analysis is the lack of data. We address this by leveraging a novel approach that adapts existing pre-trained LLMs on natural language or images from billions of tokens to the unique characteristics of Ethereum price time series data. Through thorough experimentation and comparison with traditional and contemporary models, our results demonstrate that selectively freezing certain layers of pre-trained LLMs achieves state-of-the-art performance in this domain. This approach consistently surpasses benchmarks across multiple metrics, including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness. Our research not only contributes to the existing body of knowledge on LLMs but also provides practical insights in the cryptocurrency prediction domain. The adaptability of pre-trained LLMs to handle the nature of Ethereum prices suggests a promising direction for future research, potentially including the integration of sentiment analysis to further refine forecasting accuracy.

Machine Learning on Blockchain Data: A Systematic Mapping Study

Context: Blockchain technology has drawn growing attention in the literature and in practice. Blockchain technology generates considerable amounts of data and has thus been a topic of interest for Machine Learning (ML). Objective: The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of the state of the art on machine learning applied to blockchain data. This work aims to systematically identify, analyze, and classify the literature on ML applied to blockchain data. This will allow us to discover the fields where more effort should be placed in future research. Method: A systematic mapping study has been conducted to identify the relevant literature. Ultimately, 159 articles were selected and classified according to various dimensions, specifically, the domain use case, the blockchain, the data, and the machine learning models. Results: The majority of the papers (49.7%) fall within the Anomaly use case. Bitcoin (47.2%) was the blockchain that drew the most attention. A dataset consisting of more than 1.000.000 data points was used by 31.4% of the papers. And Classification (46.5%) was the ML task most applied to blockchain data. Conclusion: The results confirm that ML applied to blockchain data is a relevant and a growing topic of interest both in the literature and in practice. Nevertheless, some open challenges and gaps remain, which can lead to future research directions. Specifically, we identify novel machine learning algorithms, the lack of a standardization framework, blockchain scalability issues and cross-chain interactions as areas worth exploring in the future.