GA-SmaAt-GNet: Generative Adversarial Small Attention GNet for Extreme Precipitation Nowcasting

In recent years, data-driven modeling approaches have gained considerable traction in various meteorological applications, particularly in the realm of weather forecasting. However, these approaches often encounter challenges when dealing with extreme weather conditions. In light of this, we propose GA-SmaAt-GNet, a novel generative adversarial architecture that makes use of two methodologies aimed at enhancing the performance of deep learning models for extreme precipitation nowcasting. Firstly, it uses a novel SmaAt-GNet built upon the successful SmaAt-UNet architecture as generator. This network incorporates precipitation masks (binarized precipitation maps) as an additional data source, leveraging valuable information for improved predictions. Additionally, GA-SmaAt-GNet utilizes an attention-augmented discriminator inspired by the well-established Pix2Pix architecture. Furthermore, we assess the performance of GA-SmaAt-GNet using real-life precipitation dataset from the Netherlands. Our experimental results reveal a notable improvement in both overall performance and for extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, we conduct uncertainty analysis on the proposed GA-SmaAt-GNet model as well as on the precipitation dataset, providing additional insights into the predictive capabilities of the model. Finally, we offer further insights into the predictions of our proposed model using Grad-CAM. This visual explanation technique generates activation heatmaps, illustrating areas of the input that are more activated for various parts of the network.