A Daily Tourism Demand Prediction Framework Based on Multi-head Attention CNN: The Case of The Foreign Entrant in South Korea

Developing an accurate tourism forecasting model is essential for making desirable policy decisions for tourism management. Early studies on tourism management focus on discovering external factors related to tourism demand. Recent studies utilize deep learning in demand forecasting along with these external factors. They mainly use recursive neural network models such as LSTM and RNN for their frameworks. However, these models are not suitable for use in forecasting tourism demand. This is because tourism demand is strongly affected by changes in various external factors, and recursive neural network models have limitations in handling these multivariate inputs. We propose a multi-head attention CNN model (MHAC) for addressing these limitations. The MHAC uses 1D-convolutional neural network to analyze temporal patterns and the attention mechanism to reflect correlations between input variables. This model makes it possible to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from time-series data of various variables. We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture. The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.

FedCCEA : A Practical Approach of Client Contribution Evaluation for Federated Learning

Client contribution evaluation, also known as data valuation, is a crucial approach in federated learning(FL) for client selection and incentive allocation. However, due to restrictions of accessibility of raw data, only limited information such as local weights and local data size of each client is open for quantifying the client contribution. Using data size from available information, we introduce an empirical evaluation method called Federated Client Contribution Evaluation through Accuracy Approximation(FedCCEA). This method builds the Accuracy Approximation Model(AAM), which estimates a simulated test accuracy using inputs of sampled data size and extracts the clients' data quality and data size to measure client contribution. FedCCEA strengthens some advantages: (1) enablement of data size selection to the clients, (2) feasible evaluation time regardless of the number of clients, and (3) precise estimation in non-IID settings. We demonstrate the superiority of FedCCEA compared to previous methods through several experiments: client contribution distribution, client removal, and robustness test to partial participation.