Prediction of Homicides in Urban Centers: A Machine Learning Approach

Relevant research has been standing out in the computing community aiming to develop computational models capable of predicting occurrence of crimes, analyzing contexts of crimes, extracting profiles of individuals linked to crimes, and analyzing crimes according to time. This, due to the social impact and also the complex origin of the data, thus showing itself as an interesting computational challenge. This research presents a computational model for the prediction of homicide crimes, based on tabular data of crimes registered in the city of Bel\'em - Par\'a, Brazil. Statistical tests were performed with 8 different classification methods, both Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Neural Network presented best results, AUC ~ 0.8. Results considered as a baseline for the proposed problem.