GreeDy and CoDy: Counterfactual Explainers for Dynamic Graphs

Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs), crucial for modeling dynamic graphs with time-varying interactions, face a significant challenge in explainability due to their complex model structure. Counterfactual explanations, crucial for understanding model decisions, examine how input graph changes affect outcomes. This paper introduces two novel counterfactual explanation methods for TGNNs: GreeDy (Greedy Explainer for Dynamic Graphs) and CoDy (Counterfactual Explainer for Dynamic Graphs). They treat explanations as a search problem, seeking input graph alterations that alter model predictions. GreeDy uses a simple, greedy approach, while CoDy employs a sophisticated Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithm. Experiments show both methods effectively generate clear explanations. Notably, CoDy outperforms GreeDy and existing factual methods, with up to 59\% higher success rate in finding significant counterfactual inputs. This highlights CoDy's potential in clarifying TGNN decision-making, increasing their transparency and trustworthiness in practice.