Individualised recovery trajectories of patients with impeded mobility, using distance between probability distributions of learnt graphs

Patients who are undergoing physical rehabilitation, benefit from feedback that follows from reliable assessment of their cumulative performance attained at a given time. In this paper, we provide a method for the learning of the recovery trajectory of an individual patient, as they undertake exercises as part of their physical therapy towards recovery of their loss of movement ability, following a critical illness. The difference between the Movement Recovery Scores (MRSs) attained by a patient, when undertaking a given exercise routine on successive instances, is given by a statistical distance/divergence between the (posterior) probabilities of random graphs that are Bayesianly learnt using time series data on locations of 20 of the patient's joints, recorded on an e-platform as the patient exercises. This allows for the computation of the MRS on every occasion the patient undertakes this exercise, using which, the recovery trajectory is drawn. We learn each graph as a Random Geometric Graph drawn in a probabilistic metric space, and identify the closed-form marginal posterior of any edge of the graph, given the correlation structure of the multivariate time series data on joint locations. On the basis of our recovery learning, we offer recommendations on the optimal exercise routines for patients with given level of mobility impairment.

A New Reliable & Parsimonious Learning Strategy Comprising Two Layers of Gaussian Processes, to Address Inhomogeneous Empirical Correlation Structures

We present a new strategy for learning the functional relation between a pair of variables, while addressing inhomogeneities in the correlation structure of the available data, by modelling the sought function as a sample function of a non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP), that nests within itself multiple other GPs, each of which we prove can be stationary, thereby establishing sufficiency of two GP layers. In fact, a non-stationary kernel is envisaged, with each hyperparameter set as dependent on the sample function drawn from the outer non-stationary GP, such that a new sample function is drawn at every pair of input values at which the kernel is computed. However, such a model cannot be implemented, and we substitute this by recalling that the average effect of drawing different sample functions from a given GP is equivalent to that of drawing a sample function from each of a set of GPs that are rendered different, as updated during the equilibrium stage of the undertaken inference (via MCMC). The kernel is fully non-parametric, and it suffices to learn one hyperparameter per layer of GP, for each dimension of the input variable. We illustrate this new learning strategy on a real dataset.