Graph neural network surrogate for strategic transport planning

As the complexities of urban environments continue to grow, the modelling of transportation systems become increasingly challenging. This paper explores the application of advanced Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures as surrogate models for strategic transport planning. Building upon a prior work that laid the foundation with graph convolution networks (GCN), our study delves into the comparative analysis of established GCN with the more expressive Graph Attention Network (GAT). Additionally, we propose a novel GAT variant (namely GATv3) to address over-smoothing issues in graph-based models. Our investigation also includes the exploration of a hybrid model combining both GCN and GAT architectures, aiming to investigate the performance of the mixture. The three models are applied to various experiments to understand their limits. We analyse hierarchical regression setups, combining classification and regression tasks, and introduce fine-grained classification with a proposal of a method to convert outputs to precise values. Results reveal the superior performance of the new GAT in classification tasks. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first GAT model in literature to achieve larger depths. Surprisingly, the fine-grained classification task demonstrates the GCN's unexpected dominance with additional training data. This shows that synthetic data generators can increase the training data, without overfitting issues whilst improving model performance. In conclusion, this research advances GNN based surrogate modelling, providing insights for refining GNN architectures. The findings open avenues for investigating the potential of the newly proposed GAT architecture and the modelling setups for other transportation problems.

Utilizing Import Vector Machines to Identify Dangerous Pro-active Traffic Conditions

Traffic accidents have been a severe issue in metropolises with the development of traffic flow. This paper explores the theory and application of a recently developed machine learning technique, namely Import Vector Machines (IVMs), in real-time crash risk analysis, which is a hot topic to reduce traffic accidents. Historical crash data and corresponding traffic data from Shanghai Urban Expressway System were employed and matched. Traffic conditions are labelled as dangerous (i.e. probably leading to a crash) and safe (i.e. a normal traffic condition) based on 5-minute measurements of average speed, volume and occupancy. The IVM algorithm is trained to build the classifier and its performance is compared to the popular and successfully applied technique of Support Vector Machines (SVMs). The main findings indicate that IVMs could successfully be employed in real-time identification of dangerous pro-active traffic conditions. Furthermore, similar to the "support points" of the SVM, the IVM model uses only a fraction of the training data to index kernel basis functions, typically a much smaller fraction than the SVM, and its classification rates are similar to those of SVMs. This gives the IVM a computational advantage over the SVM, especially when the size of the training data set is large.