Stationarity without mean reversion: Improper Gaussian process regression and improper kernels

Gaussian processes (GP) regression has gained substantial popularity in machine learning applications. The behavior of a GP regression depends on the choice of covariance function. Stationary covariance functions are favorite in machine learning applications. However, (non-periodic) stationary covariance functions are always mean reverting and can therefore exhibit pathological behavior when applied to data that does not relax to a fixed global mean value. In this paper, we show that it is possible to use improper GP prior with infinite variance to define processes that are stationary but not mean reverting. To this aim, we introduce a large class of improper kernels that can only be defined in this improper regime. Specifically, we introduce the Smooth Walk kernel, which produces infinitely smooth samples, and a family of improper Mat\'ern kernels, which can be defined to be $j$-times differentiable for any integer $j$. The resulting posterior distributions can be computed analytically and it involves a simple correction of the usual formulas. By analyzing both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that these improper kernels solve some known pathologies of mean reverting GP regression while retaining most of the favourable properties of ordinary smooth stationary kernels.