Socio-Economic Deprivation Analysis: Diffusion Maps

This report proposes a model to predict the location of the most deprived areas in a city using data from the census. A census data is very high dimensional and needs to be simplified. We use a novel algorithm to reduce dimensionality and find patterns: The diffusion map. Features are defined by eigenvectors of the Laplacian matrix that defines the diffusion map. Eigenvectors corresponding to the smallest eigenvalues indicate specific population features. Previous work has found qualitatively that the second most important dimension for describing the census data in Bristol is linked to deprivation. In this report, we analyse how good this dimension is as a model for predicting deprivation by comparing with the recognised measures. The Pearson correlation coefficient was found to be over 0.7. The top 10 per cent of deprived areas in the UK which also locate in Bristol are extracted to test the accuracy of the model. There are 52 most deprived areas, and 38 areas are correctly identified by comparing to the model. The influence of scores of IMD domains that do not correlate with the models, Eigenvector 2 entries of non-deprived OAs and orthogonality of Eigenvectors cause the model to fail the prediction of 14 deprived areas. However, overall, the model shows a high performance to predict the future deprivation of overall areas where the project considers. This project is expected to support the government to allocate resources and funding.