Automatic Rao-Blackwellization for Sequential Monte Carlo with Belief Propagation

Exact Bayesian inference on state-space models~(SSM) is in general untractable, and unfortunately, basic Sequential Monte Carlo~(SMC) methods do not yield correct approximations for complex models. In this paper, we propose a mixed inference algorithm that computes closed-form solutions using belief propagation as much as possible, and falls back to sampling-based SMC methods when exact computations fail. This algorithm thus implements automatic Rao-Blackwellization and is even exact for Gaussian tree models.