A Semi-Supervised Machine Learning Approach to Detecting Recurrent Metastatic Breast Cancer Cases Using Linked Cancer Registry and Electronic Medical Record Data

Objectives: Most cancer data sources lack information on metastatic recurrence. Electronic medical records (EMRs) and population-based cancer registries contain complementary information on cancer treatment and outcomes, yet are rarely used synergistically. To enable detection of metastatic breast cancer (MBC), we applied a semi-supervised machine learning framework to linked EMR-California Cancer Registry (CCR) data. Materials and Methods: We studied 11,459 female patients treated at Stanford Health Care who received an incident breast cancer diagnosis from 2000-2014. The dataset consisted of structured data and unstructured free-text clinical notes from EMR, linked to CCR, a component of the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We extracted information on metastatic disease from patient notes to infer a class label and then trained a regularized logistic regression model for MBC classification. We evaluated model performance on a gold standard set of set of 146 patients. Results: There are 495 patients with de novo stage IV MBC, 1,374 patients initially diagnosed with Stage 0-III disease had recurrent MBC, and 9,590 had no evidence of metastatis. The median follow-up time is 96.3 months (mean 97.8, standard deviation 46.7). The best-performing model incorporated both EMR and CCR features. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve=0.925 [95% confidence interval: 0.880-0.969], sensitivity=0.861, specificity=0.878 and overall accuracy=0.870. Discussion and Conclusion: A framework for MBC case detection combining EMR and CCR data achieved good sensitivity, specificity and discrimination without requiring expert-labeled examples. This approach enables population-based research on how patients die from cancer and may identify novel predictors of cancer recurrence.