Non-stationary and Sparsely-correlated Multi-output Gaussian Process with Spike-and-Slab Prior

Multi-output Gaussian process (MGP) is commonly used as a transfer learning method to leverage information among multiple outputs. A key advantage of MGP is providing uncertainty quantification for prediction, which is highly important for subsequent decision-making tasks. However, traditional MGP may not be sufficiently flexible to handle multivariate data with dynamic characteristics, particularly when dealing with complex temporal correlations. Additionally, since some outputs may lack correlation, transferring information among them may lead to negative transfer. To address these issues, this study proposes a non-stationary MGP model that can capture both the dynamic and sparse correlation among outputs. Specifically, the covariance functions of MGP are constructed using convolutions of time-varying kernel functions. Then a dynamic spike-and-slab prior is placed on correlation parameters to automatically decide which sources are informative to the target output in the training process. An expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed for efficient model fitting. Both numerical studies and a real case demonstrate its efficacy in capturing dynamic and sparse correlation structure and mitigating negative transfer for high-dimensional time-series data. Finally, a mountain-car reinforcement learning case highlights its potential application in decision making problems.

Regularized Multi-output Gaussian Convolution Process with Domain Adaptation

Multi-output Gaussian process (MGP) has been attracting increasing attention as a transfer learning method to model multiple outputs. Despite its high flexibility and generality, MGP still faces two critical challenges when applied to transfer learning. The first one is negative transfer, which occurs when there exists no shared information among the outputs. The second challenge is the input domain inconsistency, which is commonly studied in transfer learning yet not explored in MGP. In this paper, we propose a regularized MGP modeling framework with domain adaptation to overcome these challenges. More specifically, a sparse covariance matrix of MGP is proposed by using convolution process, where penalization terms are added to adaptively select the most informative outputs for knowledge transfer. To deal with the domain inconsistency, a domain adaptation method is proposed by marginalizing inconsistent features and expanding missing features to align the input domains among different outputs. Statistical properties of the proposed method are provided to guarantee the performance practically and asymptotically. The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks in comprehensive simulation studies and one real case study of a ceramic manufacturing process. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in dealing with both the negative transfer and the domain inconsistency.