Parallel-friendly Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning for Photovoltaic Degradation Analysis at Scale

We propose a novel Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network empowered trend analysis approach (ST-GTrend) to perform fleet-level performance degradation analysis for Photovoltaic (PV) power networks. PV power stations have become an integral component to the global sustainable energy production landscape. Accurately estimating the performance of PV systems is critical to their feasibility as a power generation technology and as a financial asset. One of the most challenging problems in assessing the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of a PV system is to understand and estimate the long-term Performance Loss Rate (PLR) for large fleets of PV inverters. ST-GTrend integrates spatio-temporal coherence and graph attention to separate PLR as a long-term "aging" trend from multiple fluctuation terms in the PV input data. To cope with diverse degradation patterns in timeseries, ST-GTrend adopts a paralleled graph autoencoder array to extract aging and fluctuation terms simultaneously. ST-GTrend imposes flatness and smoothness regularization to ensure the disentanglement between aging and fluctuation. To scale the analysis to large PV systems, we also introduce Para-GTrend, a parallel algorithm to accelerate the training and inference of ST-GTrend. We have evaluated ST-GTrend on three large-scale PV datasets, spanning a time period of 10 years. Our results show that ST-GTrend reduces Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Euclidean Distances by 34.74% and 33.66% compared to the SOTA methods. Our results demonstrate that Para-GTrend can speed up ST-GTrend by up to 7.92 times. We further verify the generality and effectiveness of ST-GTrend for trend analysis using financial and economic datasets.

Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoders with Data Augmentation for Photovoltaic Timeseries Data Imputation

The integration of the global Photovoltaic (PV) market with real time data-loggers has enabled large scale PV data analytical pipelines for power forecasting and long-term reliability assessment of PV fleets. Nevertheless, the performance of PV data analysis heavily depends on the quality of PV timeseries data. This paper proposes a novel Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoder (STD-GAE) framework to impute missing PV Power Data. STD-GAE exploits temporal correlation, spatial coherence, and value dependencies from domain knowledge to recover missing data. Experimental results show that STD-GAE can achieve a gain of 43.14% in imputation accuracy and remains less sensitive to missing rate, different seasons, and missing scenarios, compared with state-of-the-art data imputation methods such as MIDA and LRTC-TNN.