Robust personnel rostering: how accurate should absenteeism predictions be?

Disruptions to personnel rosters caused by absenteeism often necessitate last-minute adjustments to the employees' working hours. A common strategy to mitigate the impact of such changes is to assign employees to reserve shifts: special on-call duties during which an employee can be called in to cover for an absent employee. To maximize roster robustness, we assume a predict-then-optimize approach that uses absence predictions from a machine learning model to schedule an adequate number of reserve shifts. In this paper we propose a methodology to evaluate the robustness of rosters generated by the predict-then-optimize approach, assuming the machine learning model will make predictions at a predetermined prediction performance level. Instead of training and testing machine learning models, our methodology simulates the predictions based on a characterization of model performance. We show how this methodology can be applied to identify the minimum performance level needed for the model to outperform simple non-data-driven robust rostering policies. In a computational study on a nurse rostering problem, we demonstrate how the predict-then-optimize approach outperforms non-data-driven policies under reasonable performance requirements, particularly when employees possess interchangeable skills.

Models and algorithms for simple disjunctive temporal problems

Simple temporal problems represent a powerful class of models capable of describing the temporal relations between events that arise in many real-world applications such as logistics, robot planning and management systems. The classic simple temporal problem permits each event to have only a single release and due date. In this paper, we focus on the case where events may have an arbitrarily large number of release and due dates. This type of problem, however, has been referred to by various names. In order to simplify and standardize nomenclatures, we introduce the name Simple Disjunctive Temporal Problem. We provide three mathematical models to describe this problem using constraint programming and linear programming. To efficiently solve simple disjunctive temporal problems, we design two new algorithms inspired by previous research, both of which exploit the problem's structure to significantly reduce their space complexity. Additionally, we implement algorithms from the literature and provide the first in-depth empirical study comparing methods to solve simple disjunctive temporal problems across a wide range of experiments. Our analysis and conclusions offer guidance for future researchers and practitioners when tackling similar temporal constraint problems in new applications. All results, source code and instances are made publicly available to further assist future research.