WeatherFormer: A Pretrained Encoder Model for Learning Robust Weather Representations from Small Datasets

This paper introduces WeatherFormer, a transformer encoder-based model designed to learn robust weather features from minimal observations. It addresses the challenge of modeling complex weather dynamics from small datasets, a bottleneck for many prediction tasks in agriculture, epidemiology, and climate science. WeatherFormer was pretrained on a large pretraining dataset comprised of 39 years of satellite measurements across the Americas. With a novel pretraining task and fine-tuning, WeatherFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance in county-level soybean yield prediction and influenza forecasting. Technical innovations include a unique spatiotemporal encoding that captures geographical, annual, and seasonal variations, adapting the transformer architecture to continuous weather data, and a pretraining strategy to learn representations that are robust to missing weather features. This paper for the first time demonstrates the effectiveness of pretraining large transformer encoder models for weather-dependent applications across multiple domains.

Sample Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Partial Dynamics Knowledge

The problem of sample complexity of online reinforcement learning is often studied in the literature without taking into account any partial knowledge about the system dynamics that could potentially accelerate the learning process. In this paper, we study the sample complexity of online Q-learning methods when some prior knowledge about the dynamics is available or can be learned efficiently. We focus on systems that evolve according to an additive disturbance model of the form $S_{h+1} = f(S_h, A_h) + W_h$, where $f$ represents the underlying system dynamics, and $W_h$ are unknown disturbances independent of states and actions. In the setting of finite episodic Markov decision processes with $S$ states, $A$ actions, and episode length $H$, we present an optimistic Q-learning algorithm that achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\text{Poly}(H)\sqrt{T})$ regret under perfect knowledge of $f$, where $T$ is the total number of interactions with the system. This is in contrast to the typical $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\text{Poly}(H)\sqrt{SAT})$ regret for existing Q-learning methods. Further, if only a noisy estimate $\hat{f}$ of $f$ is available, our method can learn an approximately optimal policy in a number of samples that is independent of the cardinalities of state and action spaces. The sub-optimality gap depends on the approximation error $\hat{f}-f$, as well as the Lipschitz constant of the corresponding optimal value function. Our approach does not require modeling of the transition probabilities and enjoys the same memory complexity as model-free methods.