Using machine learning to inform harvest control rule design in complex fishery settings

In fishery science, harvest management of size-structured stochastic populations is a long-standing and difficult problem. Rectilinear precautionary policies based on biomass and harvesting reference points have now become a standard approach to this problem. While these standard feedback policies are adapted from analytical or dynamic programming solutions assuming relatively simple ecological dynamics, they are often applied to more complicated ecological settings in the real world. In this paper we explore the problem of designing harvest control rules for partially observed, age-structured, spasmodic fish populations using tools from reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian optimization. Our focus is on the case of Walleye fisheries in Alberta, Canada, whose highly variable recruitment dynamics have perplexed managers and ecologists. We optimized and evaluated policies using several complementary performance metrics. The main questions we addressed were: 1. How do standard policies based on reference points perform relative to numerically optimized policies? 2. Can an observation of mean fish weight, in addition to stock biomass, aid policy decisions?

Pretty darn good control: when are approximate solutions better than approximate models

Existing methods for optimal control struggle to deal with the complexity commonly encountered in real-world systems, including dimensionality, process error, model bias and data heterogeneity. Instead of tackling these system complexities directly, researchers have typically sought to simplify models to fit optimal control methods. But when is the optimal solution to an approximate, stylized model better than an approximate solution to a more accurate model? While this question has largely gone unanswered owing to the difficulty of finding even approximate solutions for complex models, recent algorithmic and computational advances in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) might finally allow us to address these questions. DRL methods have to date been applied primarily in the context of games or robotic mechanics, which operate under precisely known rules. Here, we demonstrate the ability for DRL algorithms using deep neural networks to successfully approximate solutions (the "policy function" or control rule) in a non-linear three-variable model for a fishery without knowing or ever attempting to infer a model for the process itself. We find that the reinforcement learning agent discovers an effective simplification of the problem to obtain an interpretable control rule. We show that the policy obtained with DRL is both more profitable and more sustainable than any constant mortality policy -- the standard family of policies considered in fishery management.