Comparison Analysis of Facebook's Prophet, Amazon's DeepAR+ and CNN-QR Algorithms for Successful Real-World Sales Forecasting

By successfully solving the problem of forecasting, the processes in the work of various companies are optimized and savings are achieved. In this process, the analysis of time series data is of particular importance. Since the creation of Facebook's Prophet, and Amazon's DeepAR+ and CNN-QR forecasting models, algorithms have attracted a great deal of attention. The paper presents the application and comparison of the above algorithms for sales forecasting in distribution companies. A detailed comparison of the performance of algorithms over real data with different lengths of sales history was made. The results show that Prophet gives better results for items with a longer history and frequent sales, while Amazon's algorithms show superiority for items without a long history and items that are rarely sold.

An adaptive data-driven approach to solve real-world vehicle routing problems in logistics

Transportation occupies one-third of the amount in the logistics costs, and accordingly transportation systems largely influence the performance of the logistics system. This work presents an adaptive data-driven innovative modular approach for solving the real-world Vehicle Routing Problems (VRP) in the field of logistics. The work consists of two basic units: (i) an innovative multi-step algorithm for successful and entirely feasible solving of the VRP problems in logistics, (ii) an adaptive approach for adjusting and setting up parameters and constants of the proposed algorithm. The proposed algorithm combines several data transformation approaches, heuristics and Tabu search. Moreover, as the performance of the algorithm depends on the set of control parameters and constants, a predictive model that adaptively adjusts these parameters and constants according to historical data is proposed. A comparison of the acquired results has been made using the Decision Support System with predictive models: Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The algorithm, along with the control parameters, which using the prediction method were acquired, was incorporated into a web-based enterprise system, which is in use in several big distribution companies in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The results of the proposed algorithm were compared with a set of benchmark instances and validated over real benchmark instances as well. The successful feasibility of the given routes, in a real environment, is also presented.