The Impact of Large Language Models on Open-source Innovation: Evidence from GitHub Copilot

Generative AI (GenAI) has been shown to enhance individual productivity in a guided setting. While it is also likely to transform processes in a collaborative work setting, it is unclear what trajectory this transformation will follow. Collaborative environment is characterized by a blend of origination tasks that involve building something from scratch and iteration tasks that involve refining on others' work. Whether GenAI affects these two aspects of collaborative work and to what extent is an open empirical question. We study this question within the open-source development landscape, a prime example of collaborative innovation, where contributions are voluntary and unguided. Specifically, we focus on the launch of GitHub Copilot in October 2021 and leverage a natural experiment in which GitHub Copilot (a programming-focused LLM) selectively rolled out support for Python, but not for R. We observe a significant jump in overall contributions, suggesting that GenAI effectively augments collaborative innovation in an unguided setting. Interestingly, Copilot's launch increased maintenance-related contributions, which are mostly iterative tasks involving building on others' work, significantly more than code-development contributions, which are mostly origination tasks involving standalone contributions. This disparity was exacerbated in active projects with extensive coding activity, raising concerns that, as GenAI models improve to accommodate richer context, the gap between origination and iterative solutions may widen. We discuss practical and policy implications to incentivize high-value innovative solutions.