AI-Driven Strategies for Reducing Student Withdrawal -- A Study of EMU Student Stopout

Not everyone who enrolls in college will leave with a certificate or degree, but the number of people who drop out or take a break is much higher than experts previously believed. In December 2013, there were 29 million people with some college education but no degree. That number jumped to 36 million by December of 2018, according to a new report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center[1]. It is imperative to understand the underlying factors contributing to student withdrawal and to assist decision-makers to identify effective strategies to prevent it. By analyzing the characteristics and educational pathways of the stopout student population, our aim is to provide actionable insights that can benefit institutions facing similar challenges. Eastern Michigan University (EMU) faces significant challenges in student retention, with approximately 55% of its undergraduate students not completing their degrees within six years. As an institution committed to student success, EMU conducted a comprehensive study of student withdrawals to understand the influencing factors. And the paper revealed a high correlation between certain factors and withdrawals, even in the early stages of university attendance. Based on these findings, we developed a predictive model that employs artificial intelligence techniques to assess the potential risk that students abandon their studies. These models enable universities to implement early intervention strategies, support at-risk students, and improve overall higher education success.

A Practice in Enrollment Prediction with Markov Chain Models

Enrollment projection is a critical aspect of university management, guiding decisions related to resource allocation and revenue forecasting. However, despite its importance, there remains a lack of transparency regarding the methodologies utilized by many institutions. This paper presents an innovative approach to enrollment projection using Markov Chain modeling, drawing upon a case study conducted at Eastern Michigan University (EMU). Markov Chain modeling emerges as a promising approach for enrollment projection, offering precise predictions based on historical trends. This paper outlines the implementation of Enhanced Markov Chain modeling at EMU, detailing the methodology used to compute transition probabilities and evaluate model performance. Despite challenges posed by external uncertainties such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Markov Chain modeling has demonstrated impressive accuracy, with an average difference of less than 1 percent between predicted and actual enrollments. The paper concludes with a discussion of future directions and opportunities for collaboration among institutions.