Reroute Prediction Service

The cost of delays was estimated as 33 billion US dollars only in 2019 for the US National Airspace System, a peak value following a growth trend in past years. Aiming to address this huge inefficiency, we designed and developed a novel Data Analytics and Machine Learning system, which aims at reducing delays by proactively supporting re-routing decisions. Given a time interval up to a few days in the future, the system predicts if a reroute advisory for a certain Air Route Traffic Control Center or for a certain advisory identifier will be issued, which may impact the pertinent routes. To deliver such predictions, the system uses historical reroute data, collected from the System Wide Information Management (SWIM) data services provided by the FAA, and weather data, provided by the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The data is huge in volume, and has many items streamed at high velocity, uncorrelated and noisy. The system continuously processes the incoming raw data and makes it available for the next step where an interim data store is created and adaptively maintained for efficient query processing. The resulting data is fed into an array of ML algorithms, which compete for higher accuracy. The best performing algorithm is used in the final prediction, generating the final results. Mean accuracy values higher than 90% were obtained in our experiments with this system. Our algorithm divides the area of interest in units of aggregation and uses temporal series of the aggregate measures of weather forecast parameters in each geographical unit, in order to detect correlations with reroutes and where they will most likely occur. Aiming at practical application, the system is formed by a number of microservices, which are deployed in the cloud, making the system distributed, scalable and highly available.

Big data-driven prediction of airspace congestion

Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) worldwide have been making a considerable effort for the development of a better method to measure and predict aircraft counts within a particular airspace, also referred to as airspace density. An accurate measurement and prediction of airspace density is crucial for a better managed airspace, both strategically and tactically, yielding a higher level of automation and thereby reducing the air traffic controller's workload. Although the prior approaches have been able to address the problem to some extent, data management and query processing of ever-increasing vast volume of air traffic data at high rates, for various analytics purposes such as predicting aircraft counts, still remains a challenge especially when only linear prediction models are used. In this paper, we present a novel data management and prediction system that accurately predicts aircraft counts for a particular airspace sector within the National Airspace System (NAS). The incoming Traffic Flow Management (TFM) data is streaming, big, uncorrelated and noisy. In the preprocessing step, the system continuously processes the incoming raw data, reduces it to a compact size, and stores it in a NoSQL database, where it makes the data available for efficient query processing. In the prediction step, the system learns from historical trajectories and uses their segments to collect key features such as sector boundary crossings, weather parameters, and other air traffic data. The features are fed into various regression models, including linear, non-linear and ensemble models, and the best performing model is used for prediction. Evaluation on an extensive set of real track, weather, and air traffic data including boundary crossings in the U.S. verify that our system efficiently and accurately predicts aircraft counts in each airspace sector.