A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data

The study of time series data is crucial for understanding trends and anomalies over time, enabling predictive insights across various sectors. Spatio-temporal data, on the other hand, is vital for analyzing phenomena in both space and time, providing a dynamic perspective on complex system interactions. Recently, diffusion models have seen widespread application in time series and spatio-temporal data mining. Not only do they enhance the generative and inferential capabilities for sequential and temporal data, but they also extend to other downstream tasks. In this survey, we comprehensively and thoroughly review the use of diffusion models in time series and spatio-temporal data, categorizing them by model category, task type, data modality, and practical application domain. In detail, we categorize diffusion models into unconditioned and conditioned types and discuss time series data and spatio-temporal data separately. Unconditioned models, which operate unsupervised, are subdivided into probability-based and score-based models, serving predictive and generative tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and imputation. Conditioned models, on the other hand, utilize extra information to enhance performance and are similarly divided for both predictive and generative tasks. Our survey extensively covers their application in various fields, including healthcare, recommendation, climate, energy, audio, and transportation, providing a foundational understanding of how these models analyze and generate data. Through this structured overview, we aim to provide researchers and practitioners with a comprehensive understanding of diffusion models for time series and spatio-temporal data analysis, aiming to direct future innovations and applications by addressing traditional challenges and exploring innovative solutions within the diffusion model framework.

On the Necessity of Collaboration in Online Model Selection with Decentralized Data

We consider online model selection with decentralized data over $M$ clients, and study a fundamental problem: the necessity of collaboration. Previous work gave a negative answer from the perspective of worst-case regret minimization, while we give a different answer from the perspective of regret-computational cost trade-off. We separately propose a federated algorithm with and without communication constraint and prove regret bounds that show (i) collaboration is unnecessary if we do not limit the computational cost on each client; (ii) collaboration is necessary if we limit the computational cost on each client to $o(K)$, where $K$ is the number of candidate hypothesis spaces. As a by-product, we improve the regret bounds of algorithms for distributed online multi-kernel learning at a smaller computational and communication cost. Our algorithms rely on three new techniques, i.e., an improved Bernstein's inequality for martingale, a federated algorithmic framework, named FOMD-No-LU, and decoupling model selection and predictions, which might be of independent interest.

MVEB: Self-Supervised Learning with Multi-View Entropy Bottleneck

Self-supervised learning aims to learn representation that can be effectively generalized to downstream tasks. Many self-supervised approaches regard two views of an image as both the input and the self-supervised signals, assuming that either view contains the same task-relevant information and the shared information is (approximately) sufficient for predicting downstream tasks. Recent studies show that discarding superfluous information not shared between the views can improve generalization. Hence, the ideal representation is sufficient for downstream tasks and contains minimal superfluous information, termed minimal sufficient representation. One can learn this representation by maximizing the mutual information between the representation and the supervised view while eliminating superfluous information. Nevertheless, the computation of mutual information is notoriously intractable. In this work, we propose an objective termed multi-view entropy bottleneck (MVEB) to learn minimal sufficient representation effectively. MVEB simplifies the minimal sufficient learning to maximizing both the agreement between the embeddings of two views and the differential entropy of the embedding distribution. Our experiments confirm that MVEB significantly improves performance. For example, it achieves top-1 accuracy of 76.9\% on ImageNet with a vanilla ResNet-50 backbone on linear evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the new state-of-the-art result with ResNet-50.

FedPIT: Towards Privacy-preserving and Few-shot Federated Instruction Tuning

Instruction tuning has proven essential for enhancing the performance of large language models (LLMs) in generating human-aligned responses. However, collecting diverse, high-quality instruction data for tuning poses challenges, particularly in privacy-sensitive domains. Federated instruction tuning (FedIT) has emerged as a solution, leveraging federated learning from multiple data owners while preserving privacy. Yet, it faces challenges due to limited instruction data and vulnerabilities to training data extraction attacks. To address these issues, we propose a novel federated algorithm, FedPIT, which utilizes LLMs' in-context learning capability to self-generate task-specific synthetic data for training autonomously. Our method employs parameter-isolated training to maintain global parameters trained on synthetic data and local parameters trained on augmented local data, effectively thwarting data extraction attacks. Extensive experiments on real-world medical data demonstrate the effectiveness of FedPIT in improving federated few-shot performance while preserving privacy and robustness against data heterogeneity.

Enhancing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Mutual Information-driven Cross-Variable and Temporal Modeling

Recent advancements have underscored the impact of deep learning techniques on multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF). Generally, these techniques are bifurcated into two categories: Channel-independence and Channel-mixing approaches. Although Channel-independence methods typically yield better results, Channel-mixing could theoretically offer improvements by leveraging inter-variable correlations. Nonetheless, we argue that the integration of uncorrelated information in channel-mixing methods could curtail the potential enhancement in MTSF model performance. To substantiate this claim, we introduce the Cross-variable Decorrelation Aware feature Modeling (CDAM) for Channel-mixing approaches, aiming to refine Channel-mixing by minimizing redundant information between channels while enhancing relevant mutual information. Furthermore, we introduce the Temporal correlation Aware Modeling (TAM) to exploit temporal correlations, a step beyond conventional single-step forecasting methods. This strategy maximizes the mutual information between adjacent sub-sequences of both the forecasted and target series. Combining CDAM and TAM, our novel framework significantly surpasses existing models, including those previously considered state-of-the-art, in comprehensive tests.

PDETime: Rethinking Long-Term Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from the perspective of partial differential equations

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of various models for long-term multivariate time-series forecasting (LMTF), many of which have shown promising results. Generally, the focus has been on historical-value-based models, which rely on past observations to predict future series. Notably, a new trend has emerged with time-index-based models, offering a more nuanced understanding of the continuous dynamics underlying time series. Unlike these two types of models that aggregate the information of spatial domains or temporal domains, in this paper, we consider multivariate time series as spatiotemporal data regularly sampled from a continuous dynamical system, which can be represented by partial differential equations (PDEs), with the spatial domain being fixed. Building on this perspective, we present PDETime, a novel LMTF model inspired by the principles of Neural PDE solvers, following the encoding-integration-decoding operations. Our extensive experimentation across seven diverse real-world LMTF datasets reveals that PDETime not only adapts effectively to the intrinsic spatiotemporal nature of the data but also sets new benchmarks, achieving state-of-the-art results

Cumulative Distribution Function based General Temporal Point Processes

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) hold a pivotal role in modeling event sequences across diverse domains, including social networking and e-commerce, and have significantly contributed to the advancement of recommendation systems and information retrieval strategies. Through the analysis of events such as user interactions and transactions, TPPs offer valuable insights into behavioral patterns, facilitating the prediction of future trends. However, accurately forecasting future events remains a formidable challenge due to the intricate nature of these patterns. The integration of Neural Networks with TPPs has ushered in the development of advanced deep TPP models. While these models excel at processing complex and nonlinear temporal data, they encounter limitations in modeling intensity functions, grapple with computational complexities in integral computations, and struggle to capture long-range temporal dependencies effectively. In this study, we introduce the CuFun model, representing a novel approach to TPPs that revolves around the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). CuFun stands out by uniquely employing a monotonic neural network for CDF representation, utilizing past events as a scaling factor. This innovation significantly bolsters the model's adaptability and precision across a wide range of data scenarios. Our approach addresses several critical issues inherent in traditional TPP modeling: it simplifies log-likelihood calculations, extends applicability beyond predefined density function forms, and adeptly captures long-range temporal patterns. Our contributions encompass the introduction of a pioneering CDF-based TPP model, the development of a methodology for incorporating past event information into future event prediction, and empirical validation of CuFun's effectiveness through extensive experimentation on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Preparing Lessons for Progressive Training on Language Models

The rapid progress of Transformers in artificial intelligence has come at the cost of increased resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions due to growing model sizes. Prior work suggests using pretrained small models to improve training efficiency, but this approach may not be suitable for new model structures. On the other hand, training from scratch can be slow, and progressively stacking layers often fails to achieve significant acceleration. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method called Apollo, which prep\textbf{a}res lessons for ex\textbf{p}anding \textbf{o}perations by \textbf{l}earning high-\textbf{l}ayer functi\textbf{o}nality during training of low layers. Our approach involves low-value-prioritized sampling (LVPS) to train different depths and weight sharing to facilitate efficient expansion. We also introduce an interpolation method for stable model depth extension. Experiments demonstrate that Apollo achieves state-of-the-art acceleration ratios, even rivaling methods using pretrained models, making it a universal and efficient solution for training deep models while reducing time, financial, and environmental costs.

SecFormer: Towards Fast and Accurate Privacy-Preserving Inference for Large Language Models

With the growing use of large language models hosted on cloud platforms to offer inference services, privacy concerns are escalating, especially concerning sensitive data like investment plans and bank account details. Secure Multi-Party Computing (SMPC) emerges as a promising solution to protect the privacy of inference data and model parameters. However, the application of SMPC in Privacy-Preserving Inference (PPI) for large language models, particularly those based on the Transformer architecture, often leads to considerable slowdowns or declines in performance. This is largely due to the multitude of nonlinear operations in the Transformer architecture, which are not well-suited to SMPC and difficult to circumvent or optimize effectively. To address this concern, we introduce an advanced optimization framework called SecFormer, to achieve fast and accurate PPI for Transformer models. By implementing model design optimization, we successfully eliminate the high-cost exponential and maximum operations in PPI without sacrificing model performance. Additionally, we have developed a suite of efficient SMPC protocols that utilize segmented polynomials, Fourier series and Goldschmidt's method to handle other complex nonlinear functions within PPI, such as GeLU, LayerNorm, and Softmax. Our extensive experiments reveal that SecFormer outperforms MPCFormer in performance, showing improvements of $5.6\%$ and $24.2\%$ for BERT$_{\text{BASE}}$ and BERT$_{\text{LARGE}}$, respectively. In terms of efficiency, SecFormer is 3.56 and 3.58 times faster than Puma for BERT$_{\text{BASE}}$ and BERT$_{\text{LARGE}}$, demonstrating its effectiveness and speed.

On Diversified Preferences of Large Language Model Alignment

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences has been recognized as the key to improving LLMs' interaction quality. However, in this pluralistic world, human preferences can be diversified by people's different tastes, which hinders the effectiveness of LLM alignment methods. In this paper, we provide the first quantitative analysis to verify the existence of diversified preferences in commonly used human feedback datasets. To mitigate the alignment ineffectiveness caused by diversified preferences, we propose a novel \textbf{M}ulti-\textbf{O}bjective \textbf{Re}ward learning method (MORE), which can automatically adjust the learning gradients across different preference data sources. In experiments, we evaluate MORE with the Pythia-1.4B model on five mixed human preference datasets, on which our method achieves superior performance compared with other baselines in terms of preference accuracy and prediction calibration.