From Orthogonality to Dependency: Learning Disentangled Representation for Multi-Modal Time-Series Sensing Signals

Existing methods for multi-modal time series representation learning aim to disentangle the modality-shared and modality-specific latent variables. Although achieving notable performances on downstream tasks, they usually assume an orthogonal latent space. However, the modality-specific and modality-shared latent variables might be dependent on real-world scenarios. Therefore, we propose a general generation process, where the modality-shared and modality-specific latent variables are dependent, and further develop a \textbf{M}ulti-mod\textbf{A}l \textbf{TE}mporal Disentanglement (\textbf{MATE}) model. Specifically, our \textbf{MATE} model is built on a temporally variational inference architecture with the modality-shared and modality-specific prior networks for the disentanglement of latent variables. Furthermore, we establish identifiability results to show that the extracted representation is disentangled. More specifically, we first achieve the subspace identifiability for modality-shared and modality-specific latent variables by leveraging the pairing of multi-modal data. Then we establish the component-wise identifiability of modality-specific latent variables by employing sufficient changes of historical latent variables. Extensive experimental studies on multi-modal sensors, human activity recognition, and healthcare datasets show a general improvement in different downstream tasks, highlighting the effectiveness of our method in real-world scenarios.

On the Identification of Temporally Causal Representation with Instantaneous Dependence

Temporally causal representation learning aims to identify the latent causal process from time series observations, but most methods require the assumption that the latent causal processes do not have instantaneous relations. Although some recent methods achieve identifiability in the instantaneous causality case, they require either interventions on the latent variables or grouping of the observations, which are in general difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose an \textbf{ID}entification framework for instantane\textbf{O}us \textbf{L}atent dynamics (\textbf{IDOL}) by imposing a sparse influence constraint that the latent causal processes have sparse time-delayed and instantaneous relations. Specifically, we establish identifiability results of the latent causal process based on sufficient variability and the sparse influence constraint by employing contextual information of time series data. Based on these theories, we incorporate a temporally variational inference architecture to estimate the latent variables and a gradient-based sparsity regularization to identify the latent causal process. Experimental results on simulation datasets illustrate that our method can identify the latent causal process. Furthermore, evaluations on multiple human motion forecasting benchmarks with instantaneous dependencies indicate the effectiveness of our method in real-world settings.

Narrative Action Evaluation with Prompt-Guided Multimodal Interaction

In this paper, we investigate a new problem called narrative action evaluation (NAE). NAE aims to generate professional commentary that evaluates the execution of an action. Unlike traditional tasks such as score-based action quality assessment and video captioning involving superficial sentences, NAE focuses on creating detailed narratives in natural language. These narratives provide intricate descriptions of actions along with objective evaluations. NAE is a more challenging task because it requires both narrative flexibility and evaluation rigor. One existing possible solution is to use multi-task learning, where narrative language and evaluative information are predicted separately. However, this approach results in reduced performance for individual tasks because of variations between tasks and differences in modality between language information and evaluation information. To address this, we propose a prompt-guided multimodal interaction framework. This framework utilizes a pair of transformers to facilitate the interaction between different modalities of information. It also uses prompts to transform the score regression task into a video-text matching task, thus enabling task interactivity. To support further research in this field, we re-annotate the MTL-AQA and FineGym datasets with high-quality and comprehensive action narration. Additionally, we establish benchmarks for NAE. Extensive experiment results prove that our method outperforms separate learning methods and naive multi-task learning methods. Data and code are released at https://github.com/shiyi-zh0408/NAE_CVPR2024.

Federated Causal Discovery from Heterogeneous Data

Conventional causal discovery methods rely on centralized data, which is inconsistent with the decentralized nature of data in many real-world situations. This discrepancy has motivated the development of federated causal discovery (FCD) approaches. However, existing FCD methods may be limited by their potentially restrictive assumptions of identifiable functional causal models or homogeneous data distributions, narrowing their applicability in diverse scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel FCD method attempting to accommodate arbitrary causal models and heterogeneous data. We first utilize a surrogate variable corresponding to the client index to account for the data heterogeneity across different clients. We then develop a federated conditional independence test (FCIT) for causal skeleton discovery and establish a federated independent change principle (FICP) to determine causal directions. These approaches involve constructing summary statistics as a proxy of the raw data to protect data privacy. Owing to the nonparametric properties, FCIT and FICP make no assumption about particular functional forms, thereby facilitating the handling of arbitrary causal models. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets to show the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/lokali/FedCDH.git.

Confidence Matters: Revisiting Intrinsic Self-Correction Capabilities of Large Language Models

The recent success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has catalyzed an increasing interest in their self-correction capabilities. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the intrinsic self-correction of LLMs, attempting to address the ongoing debate about its feasibility. Our research has identified an important latent factor - the "confidence" of LLMs - during the self-correction process. Overlooking this factor may cause the models to over-criticize themselves, resulting in unreliable conclusions regarding the efficacy of self-correction. We have experimentally observed that LLMs possess the capability to understand the "confidence" in their own responses. It motivates us to develop an "If-or-Else" (IoE) prompting framework, designed to guide LLMs in assessing their own "confidence", facilitating intrinsic self-corrections. We conduct extensive experiments and demonstrate that our IoE-based Prompt can achieve a consistent improvement regarding the accuracy of self-corrected responses over the initial answers. Our study not only sheds light on the underlying factors affecting self-correction in LLMs, but also introduces a practical framework that utilizes the IoE prompting principle to efficiently improve self-correction capabilities with "confidence". The code is available at https://github.com/MBZUAI-CLeaR/IoE-Prompting.git.

When and How: Learning Identifiable Latent States for Nonstationary Time Series Forecasting

Temporal distribution shifts are ubiquitous in time series data. One of the most popular methods assumes that the temporal distribution shift occurs uniformly to disentangle the stationary and nonstationary dependencies. But this assumption is difficult to meet, as we do not know when the distribution shifts occur. To solve this problem, we propose to learn IDentifiable latEnt stAtes (IDEA) to detect when the distribution shifts occur. Beyond that, we further disentangle the stationary and nonstationary latent states via sufficient observation assumption to learn how the latent states change. Specifically, we formalize the causal process with environment-irrelated stationary and environment-related nonstationary variables. Under mild conditions, we show that latent environments and stationary/nonstationary variables are identifiable. Based on these theories, we devise the IDEA model, which incorporates an autoregressive hidden Markov model to estimate latent environments and modular prior networks to identify latent states. The IDEA model outperforms several latest nonstationary forecasting methods on various benchmark datasets, highlighting its advantages in real-world scenarios.

Learning Domain-Invariant Temporal Dynamics for Few-Shot Action Recognition

Few-shot action recognition aims at quickly adapting a pre-trained model to the novel data with a distribution shift using only a limited number of samples. Key challenges include how to identify and leverage the transferable knowledge learned by the pre-trained model. Our central hypothesis is that temporal invariance in the dynamic system between latent variables lends itself to transferability (domain-invariance). We therefore propose DITeD, or Domain-Invariant Temporal Dynamics for knowledge transfer. To detect the temporal invariance part, we propose a generative framework with a two-stage training strategy during pre-training. Specifically, we explicitly model invariant dynamics including temporal dynamic generation and transitions, and the variant visual and domain encoders. Then we pre-train the model with the self-supervised signals to learn the representation. After that, we fix the whole representation model and tune the classifier. During adaptation, we fix the transferable temporal dynamics and update the image encoder. The efficacy of our approach is revealed by the superior accuracy of DITeD over leading alternatives across standard few-shot action recognition datasets. Moreover, we validate that the learned temporal dynamic transition and temporal dynamic generation modules possess transferable qualities.

CaRiNG: Learning Temporal Causal Representation under Non-Invertible Generation Process

Identifying the underlying time-delayed latent causal processes in sequential data is vital for grasping temporal dynamics and making downstream reasoning. While some recent methods can robustly identify these latent causal variables, they rely on strict assumptions about the invertible generation process from latent variables to observed data. However, these assumptions are often hard to satisfy in real-world applications containing information loss. For instance, the visual perception process translates a 3D space into 2D images, or the phenomenon of persistence of vision incorporates historical data into current perceptions. To address this challenge, we establish an identifiability theory that allows for the recovery of independent latent components even when they come from a nonlinear and non-invertible mix. Using this theory as a foundation, we propose a principled approach, CaRiNG, to learn the CAusal RepresentatIon of Non-invertible Generative temporal data with identifiability guarantees. Specifically, we utilize temporal context to recover lost latent information and apply the conditions in our theory to guide the training process. Through experiments conducted on synthetic datasets, we validate that our CaRiNG method reliably identifies the causal process, even when the generation process is non-invertible. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach considerably improves temporal understanding and reasoning in practical applications.

Learning Socio-Temporal Graphs for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction

In order to predict a pedestrian's trajectory in a crowd accurately, one has to take into account her/his underlying socio-temporal interactions with other pedestrians consistently. Unlike existing work that represents the relevant information separately, partially, or implicitly, we propose a complete representation for it to be fully and explicitly captured and analyzed. In particular, we introduce a Directed Acyclic Graph-based structure, which we term Socio-Temporal Graph (STG), to explicitly capture pair-wise socio-temporal interactions among a group of people across both space and time. Our model is built on a time-varying generative process, whose latent variables determine the structure of the STGs. We design an attention-based model named STGformer that affords an end-to-end pipeline to learn the structure of the STGs for trajectory prediction. Our solution achieves overall state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in two large-scale benchmark datasets. Our analysis shows that a person's past trajectory is critical for predicting another person's future path. Our model learns this relationship with a strong notion of socio-temporal localities. Statistics show that utilizing this information explicitly for prediction yields a noticeable performance gain with respect to the trajectory-only approaches.

Identifying Semantic Component for Robust Molecular Property Prediction

Although graph neural networks have achieved great success in the task of molecular property prediction in recent years, their generalization ability under out-of-distribution (OOD) settings is still under-explored. Different from existing methods that learn discriminative representations for prediction, we propose a generative model with semantic-components identifiability, named SCI. We demonstrate that the latent variables in this generative model can be explicitly identified into semantic-relevant (SR) and semantic-irrelevant (SI) components, which contributes to better OOD generalization by involving minimal change properties of causal mechanisms. Specifically, we first formulate the data generation process from the atom level to the molecular level, where the latent space is split into SI substructures, SR substructures, and SR atom variables. Sequentially, to reduce misidentification, we restrict the minimal changes of the SR atom variables and add a semantic latent substructure regularization to mitigate the variance of the SR substructure under augmented domain changes. Under mild assumptions, we prove the block-wise identifiability of the SR substructure and the comment-wise identifiability of SR atom variables. Experimental studies achieve state-of-the-art performance and show general improvement on 21 datasets in 3 mainstream benchmarks. Moreover, the visualization results of the proposed SCI method provide insightful case studies and explanations for the prediction results. The code is available at: https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/SCI.